Record Arab voter turnout reshapes election arithmetic, leaving opposition leaders with a difficult choice over whether to cooperate with Arab lawmakers to form a government
JERUSALEM — Israel’s election has produced a political paradox: a majority of parliamentary seats appear to be held by parties opposed to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, yet the veteran leader may still find a path to remain in power. The decisive question is whether his opponents are prepared to work with Arab-led parties whose support could help them assemble a governing majority.
Partial results from Tuesday’s election point to a closely divided 120-member Knesset, with neither the Netanyahu-led right-wing and religious bloc nor the main opposition grouping led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot securing the 61 seats required to govern independently. Arab-led parties have made significant gains, emerging as potential kingmakers in the negotiations that will follow the vote. The figures remain provisional as counting continues.
The Joint List and Ra’am, the two principal Arab-led political groupings, were projected in early near-final tallies to win a combined 19 seats — a historic high. Their expanded parliamentary presence reflects a sharp rise in Arab voter participation, with many voters motivated by opposition to Netanyahu’s government and concerns over the policies of its far-right partners. The result has strengthened the political leverage of Arab lawmakers at a moment when both major blocs are struggling to secure a majority.
Yet the arithmetic does not automatically translate into a change of government. Eisenkot and several potential partners have previously ruled out relying on Arab parties to form a coalition. That position now presents the opposition with a difficult choice: reconsider its commitments and negotiate with Arab representatives, or risk leaving Netanyahu in office despite the opposition’s combined parliamentary potential.
Arab political leaders have indicated that they are willing to play a role in bringing about a change of government, although their positions on coalition participation differ. Joint List leader Yousef Jabareen has indicated that his alliance could support an anti-Netanyahu government from outside without formally joining it. Ra’am leader Mansour Abbas has expressed greater openness to participating in a governing arrangement. Differences over policy, particularly the war in Gaza and wider national-security questions, could complicate negotiations.
The political dilemma reflects a longstanding divide in Israeli politics over the role of Arab citizens and their elected representatives in national government. Arab citizens make up roughly one-fifth of Israel’s population, but Arab-led parties have often faced resistance from major Jewish political parties when coalition governments are being formed. The current result has brought that question to the centre of the negotiations over who will lead the country.
Netanyahu’s Likud-led bloc was projected to hold 53 seats in a near-final tally published on Wednesday, while Eisenkot’s opposition grouping had 48. The Arab-led parties’ combined projected strength was enough to make cooperation with them potentially decisive. However, neither camp has yet demonstrated a clear route to the 61-seat threshold, and the final outcome will depend on further counting and negotiations among party leaders.
If the opposition refuses to rely on Arab parties, the possible alternatives include a unity government involving Netanyahu or another election. Either scenario could prolong Netanyahu’s tenure, at least in the short term. But reversing earlier pledges to exclude Arab parties could also alienate some opposition voters and expose divisions within the anti-Netanyahu camp.
The next stage of the process will involve consultations with President Isaac Herzog, who plays a constitutional role in determining which political leader is given the opportunity to form a government. The process could take weeks, particularly if party leaders remain divided over coalition partners and policy priorities.
For now, the election has placed Arab political representation at the centre of Israel’s struggle to form a stable government. The outcome will depend not only on the number of seats won by each bloc, but also on whether political leaders are willing to negotiate across ideological and communal divisions. The decisive question is whether the opposition can convert its parliamentary numbers into a viable governing coalition — or whether disagreements over Arab participation will give Netanyahu another opportunity to remain in office.
